Twenty-five days out, the model still points to a Democratic year. It projects Democrats to win the House comfortably and the Senate more likely than not. Georgia is split: Senator Ossoff is a strong favorite, and the governor's race is close to a coin flip. This week moved the headline numbers only slightly, and in the Democrats' direction.
Changes are measured from last Friday evening, October 2. Chances are the model's probabilities. A 20% chance comes true one time in five, so treat none of these numbers as a certainty.
Georgia votes on a U.S. Senate seat, an open governorship, every statewide office, all 14 U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the General Assembly. The two top races are going in different directions. Senator Jon Ossoff leads Representative Mike Collins by 8.1 points on average, a 10.3-point swing toward Democrats from President Trump's 2.2-point win in Georgia in 2024. He also has a large money advantage: about $42.6 million in his own campaign account at midyear against about $2.1 million for Collins, and about $46 million in booked television against $1.6 million.
The governor's race is the closest major race in the state. All five pollsters in the average have Rick Jackson ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms, by 1 to 3 points, for an average of Jackson +2.2. That is no swing at all from 2024, while Ossoff runs about 10 points ahead of the same baseline. The model still gives Bottoms 50.9% because it blends the polls with a national environment that favors Democrats. Polls this fall show many independents backing Ossoff for Senate and splitting on the governor's race.
Down the ballot, Democrats need 10 more seats to control the state House and 6 more to control the state Senate. The model puts the House within reach and the Senate a longer shot. Last November, Democrats won both Public Service Commission races by about 26 points, but only about 1.56 million Georgians voted. A midterm electorate will be two to three times larger.
| Race | Matchup | Rating | Chance (D) | Polling and notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | Ossoff (D, incumbent) v. Collins (R) | Safe D | 97.4% | Ossoff +8.1; swing of 10.3 toward Democrats since 2024 |
| Governor (open) | Bottoms (D) v. Jackson (R) | Toss-up | 50.9% | Tilts Jackson; Jackson +2.2 across five pollsters; no swing since 2024 |
| Lieutenant Governor (open) | McLaurin (D) v. Dolezal (R) | Not rated | n/a | No public poll |
| Secretary of State (open) | Reynolds (D) v. Fleming (R) | Not rated | n/a | No public poll |
| Attorney General (open) | Miller (D) v. Strickland (R) | Not rated | n/a | No public poll |
| State House (180 seats) | Democrats hold 81; 91 for control | Likely D | 81.0% | Median 95 Democratic seats (range 89 to 104) |
| State Senate (56 seats) | Democrats hold 23; 29 for control | Lean R | 29.0% | Median 27 Democratic seats (range 24 to 31) |
Democrats hold 5 of Georgia's 14 U.S. House seats. Georgia did not redraw its map this cycle, so the 2024 results below are on current lines. The model's median is 6 Democratic seats (80% range 5 to 8), with a 69% chance that Democrats gain at least one seat and a 37% chance they gain two or more. All five Democratic seats are Safe, including the open 13th. No single Republican seat is favored to flip, but five of them sit between 13% and 38%, and the same national swing moves all of them together, so in most simulations at least one falls.
The best Democratic opportunities are two Lean Republican seats: the 12th, held by Rick Allen (Trump +14), at 38%, and the open 1st on the coast (Trump +16), at 37%. Next come the open 10th (Trump +21, 20%), the open 11th (Trump +23, 15%), and Rich McCormick's 7th (Trump +22, 13%). In last November's low-turnout Public Service Commission races, the Democrat carried the 1st, 10th, and 12th and came within 1.5 points in the 7th and 11th. Two Democratic candidates have released their own polls showing close races in deep-red seats: Chris Harden ahead by 2 in the open 11th and Maura Keller behind Brian Jack by 5 in the 3rd, swings of about 25 points from 2024. The tracker records district polls but never enters them in the model. No outside group had reported spending in any Georgia House race as of October 8.
| District | Held | 2024 | Rating | Chance (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA-01 | R open | R+16 | Lean R | 37% |
| GA-02 | D | D+8 | Safe D | >99% |
| GA-03 | R | R+30 | Safe R | 3% |
| GA-04 | D | D+52 | Safe D | >99% |
| GA-05 | D | D+72 | Safe D | >99% |
| GA-06 | D | D+50 | Safe D | >99% |
| GA-07 | R | R+22 | Likely R | 13% |
| GA-08 | R | R+31 | Safe R | 2% |
| GA-09 | R | R+34 | Safe R | 1% |
| GA-10 | R open | R+21 | Lean R | 20% |
| GA-11 | R open | R+23 | Likely R | 15% |
| GA-12 | R | R+14 | Lean R | 38% |
| GA-13 | D open | D+42 | Safe D | >99% |
| GA-14 | R | R+37 | Safe R | <1% |
Democrats hold 47 seats and need 51 for control; a 50-50 Senate stays Republican because the vice president breaks ties. The model's median is 58 Democratic seats, with a range of 52 to 62. It rates ten Republican-held seats Lean Democratic or better, from North Carolina (98%) through Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota to South Carolina (63%). Idaho and Mississippi are toss-ups. Every Democratic-held seat is rated Likely or Safe.
Republicans and their allies are outspending Democrats in outside and party money by more than two to one. Democratic candidates, however, hold more cash in their own campaigns in several of the biggest races, including North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas, and candidates pay the lowest television rates by law in the final weeks, so a candidate dollar buys more airtime than an outside dollar.
| Race | Held | Rating | Polling average | Week | Chance (D) | Week (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | R | Safe D flip | D+9.5 | −0.1 | 98% | no change |
| Georgia (Ossoff) | D | Safe D | D+8.1 | +0.3 | 97% | no change |
| New Hampshire (open) | D | Safe D | D+6.8 | +0.3 | 96% | +1 |
| Ohio (special) | R | Likely D flip | D+3.9 | −0.4 | 90% | −1 |
| Michigan (open) | D | Likely D | D+3.4 | +0.2 | 89% | +1 |
| Minnesota (open) | D | Likely D | D+3.2 | +0.9 | 88% | +3 |
| Texas | R | Likely D flip | D+2.7 | +0.2 | 87% | +1 |
| Alaska | R | Likely D flip | D+2.5 | +0.4 | 86% | +2 |
| Maine | R | Likely D flip | D+2.0 | +0.3 | 84% | +2 |
| Kansas | R | Likely D flip | D+1.4 | +1.5 | 82% | +7 |
| Iowa (open) | R | Likely D flip | D+1.0 | +0.2 | 80% | +1 |
| Nebraska | R | Lean D flip | D+0.5 | +0.2 | 78% | +1 |
| South Dakota | R | Lean D flip | R+1.0 | no change | 71% | no change |
| South Carolina | R | Lean D flip | R+2.4 | no change | 63% | +1 |
| Idaho | R | Toss-up | R+5.0 | no change | 48% | +1 |
| Mississippi | R | Toss-up | R+6.0 | no change | 42% | +1 |
| Arkansas | R | Lean R | R+6.7 | −1.7 | 39% | −9 |
| Florida (special) | R | Lean R | R+7.1 | −1.0 | 36% | −5 |
| Louisiana | R | Lean R | R+7.5 | no change | 34% | no change |
| Kentucky | R | Lean R | R+9.0 | no change | 26% | no change |
The model blends each race's polling with the national environment, and a national swing lifts every race at once. That is why South Dakota and South Carolina rate Lean Democratic even though Republicans lead their polls narrowly, and how the median reaches 58. Nebraska's Osborn is an independent, counted with Democrats. Week columns: change since October 2.
Democrats need 218 seats. The model's median is 258, with a range of 233 to 293, and a 99.0% chance of a majority. The projection rests on a national environment of about 12 points in Democrats' favor. That figure blends three things: the likely-voter generic ballot average (Democrats +8.6), special elections this cycle (+14), and primary turnout (+13).
That median sits above the top of the range the Democrats' own House committee calls viable. Two cautions apply. Republicans have more cash in their House committee and their super PACs. And individual district polls have often run behind the model, which is why the tracker records them as a check rather than using them as an input.
| District | Held | 2024 | Chance (D) | Week (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-09 | D | R+18 | 60% | +0.4 |
| TX-32 | D | R+18 | 60% | +0.4 |
| CO-05 | R | R+9 | 59% | +0.4 |
| PA-08 | R | R+9 | 59% | +0.4 |
| CO-03 | R | R+10 | 55% | +0.4 |
| NY-01 | R | R+10 | 55% | +0.4 |
| OH-15 | R | R+10 | 55% | +0.4 |
| MT-01 | R open | R+12 | 54% | +0.4 |
| District | Held | 2024 | Chance (D) | Week (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-07 | R | R+11 | 51% | +0.4 |
| WA-05 | R | R+11 | 51% | +0.4 |
| SC-01 | R open | R+13 | 50% | +0.4 |
| FL-04 | R | R+12 | 47% | +0.4 |
| FL-07 | R | R+12 | 47% | +0.4 |
| MN-01 | R | R+12 | 47% | +0.4 |
| VA-05 | R | R+12 | 47% | +0.4 |
| FL-16 | R open | R+14 | 45% | +0.4 |
| District | Held | 2024 | Chance (D) | Week (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-02 | R open | R+14 | 45% | +0.4 |
| AK-AL | R | R+13 | 42% | +0.3 |
| FL-13 | R | R+13 | 42% | +0.3 |
| NE-01 | R | R+13 | 42% | +0.3 |
| NJ-02 | R | R+13 | 42% | +0.3 |
| KY-06 | R open | R+15 | 41% | +0.3 |
| TX-23 | R open | R+15 | 41% | +0.3 |
Week = change in the chance since October 2, in points. The model's wider set of competitive seats (20% to 80%) holds 80 districts.
Thirty-six states elect governors this year. The model projects 28 Democratic governors after the election, within a range of 25 to 31, up from 24 today. It rates four Republican-held governorships Lean Democratic or better: Iowa (92%), Alaska (89%), Ohio (79%), and Nevada (62%), where the polls are even. Vermont, Georgia, and Texas are toss-ups, as is Democratic-held Kansas, where the Republican leads the polling by 3.9 points.
Two races cut against their states' usual lean. Vermont's Republican governor, Phil Scott, leads by about 2 points in one of the most Democratic states in the country. And in Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro leads by more than 20 points in a state President Trump carried.
| Race | Held by | Rating | Polls | 2024 | Chance (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | R, open | Likely D | D+8.8 | R+13.2 | 92% |
| Michigan | D, open | Likely D | D+8.1 | R+1.4 | 91% |
| Minnesota | D, open | Likely D | D+8.0 | D+4.2 | 91% |
| Alaska | R, open | Likely D | D+7.1 | R+13.1 | 89% |
| New Mexico | D, open | Likely D | D+6.0 | D+6.0 | 86% |
| Wisconsin | D, open | Lean D | D+4.0 | R+0.9 | 79% |
| Ohio | R, open | Lean D | D+3.9 | R+11.2 | 79% |
| Oregon | D (Kotek) | Lean D | D+0.3 | D+14.0 | 63% |
| Nevada | R (Lombardo) | Lean D | Even | R+3.1 | 62% |
| Race | Held by | Rating | Polls | 2024 | Chance (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont | R (Scott) | Toss-up | R+2.1 | D+31.5 | 51% |
| Georgia | R, open | Toss-up | R+2.2 | R+2.2 | 51% |
| Texas | R (Abbott) | Toss-up | R+2.4 | R+13.7 | 50% |
| Kansas | D, open | Toss-up | R+3.9 | R+16.1 | 42% |
| Florida | R, open | Lean R | R+5.1 | R+13.1 | 37% |
| Nebraska | R (Pillen) | Lean R | R+5.4 | R+20.5 | 35% |
| Tennessee | R, open | Lean R | R+9.0 | R+29.4 | 20% |
| New Hampshire | R (Ayotte) | Likely R | R+10.6 | D+2.8 | 15% |
| Alabama | R, open | Likely R | R+13.0 | R+30.5 | 9% |
Governor chances apply the tracker's Georgia governor model to every state's polling average: the polls, plus half of the national environment's lean, with wide uncertainty. The eight races with no tracked polling (Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Wyoming) use the 2024 presidential margin in place of polls. Safe races are left out of the table.
The headline rests on one estimate of the national environment. The scenarios below change that one assumption and hold everything else constant. Each is run through the same model.
| Scenario | U.S. House | U.S. Senate | Ossoff | Bottoms | GA House | GA Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published model The national environment blends the polls, special elections, and primaries (Democrats by about 12). | 258 99.0% | 58 94.0% | 97.4% | 50.9% (Jackson +2.2) | 95 81.0% | 27 29.0% |
| Polls only The national environment set to the likely-voter polling average alone (Democrats by 8.6). | 243 94.0% | 55 79.4% | 92.2% | 43.8% (Jackson +2.2) | 92 57.8% | 26 16.5% |
| Softer national polls The tracker's pre-set fallback if national polling weakens: a blended environment of about Democrats +11, with more uncertainty. | 254 97.3% | 57 89.5% | 95.7% | 49.0% (Jackson +2.2) | 94 73.8% | 27 26.0% |
| Red seats swing harder Same environment, but Republican-leaning districts move further toward Democrats than Democratic ones do. | 273 99.6% | 58 94.0% | 97.4% | 50.9% (Jackson +2.2) | 99 90.1% | 28 49.8% |
House, Senate, and Georgia legislature cells: median Democratic seats, then the chance of Democratic control. Ossoff and Bottoms: chance of winning, with the polling margin for Bottoms.
Even in the polls-only scenario, Democrats remain favored for both chambers of Congress. The race that moves most across the scenarios is Georgia's governor, from about 44% to 51% for Bottoms, followed by the Georgia state Senate, which ranges from a long shot to close to even.