State of the Races

In the final edition before Election Day, the House projection is unchanged and the Senate edged up to 58 seats, mainly because of Louisiana. In Georgia, Senator Ossoff remains a strong favorite, and the governor's race is still a toss-up, though Bottoms's chance rose to 55.4% after the first two likely-voter polls with Bottoms ahead.

• Headline numbers. The House held at 257 Democratic seats (98.8% chance of a majority). The Senate rose from 57 to 58 seats and from 92.7% to 94.2%. The environment estimate held at 11.7 points; the likely-voter generic ballot median is Democrats +8.0 across 36 polls, including NPR, PBS News, and Marist at Democrats +8 (a 9.5-point swing toward Democrats from 2024).
• Georgia. The first two likely-voter polls with Bottoms ahead arrived this week: Echelon Insights for NetChoice by 1 (a 3.2-point swing toward Democrats) and State Navigate by 3 (a 5.2-point swing). Jackson's lead in the average fell from 2.1 to 1.25 points, and Bottoms's chance rose from 51.4% to 55.4%. Ossoff leads by 9.1 (98.0%). Early voting closed on Friday with 2,823,422 ballots.
• Senate. Louisiana moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic (64.5%) after a poll for the Democrat, Davis, found the race even, a 22.2-point swing from President Trump's 22-point win, and the tracker began counting Davis's campaign polls at face value, as it does every other sponsored poll. South Dakota moved from a toss-up to Lean Republican (47% to 39%) on a Mason-Dixon poll with Senator Rounds ahead by 19, a 10.3-point swing toward the independent, Bengs.
• Money. Senate outside and party spending on the tracker's board is about $1.16 billion Republican to $642 million Democratic, 1.8 to 1. In Georgia, counting candidate cash, Democrats lead $34.5 million to $22.8 million, 1.5 to 1. The largest single notice this week was $5.3 million from a Republican-aligned group against El-Sayed in Michigan. Money never moves a rating.
• House. Outside money now reaches 30 of the 34 long-shot seats the tracker watches, up from 27. Four nonpartisan Times and Siena district polls for the Philadelphia Inquirer had Democrats ahead in Pennsylvania's 1st, 7th, and 8th and Representative Perry ahead by 0.4 in the 10th, swings of 2.4 to 13.1 points toward Democrats, but on average 3.9 points behind the model. District polls never enter the model.
• Governors. Held at 29 (range 26 to 33). Wisconsin moved from Lean to Likely Democratic after Marquette had Crowley ahead by 7 (a 7.9-point swing toward Democrats), and Minnesota to Safe Democratic after SurveyUSA had Klobuchar ahead by 12 (a 7.8-point swing). Nebraska slipped to 44% after a New York Times and Siena poll had Governor Pillen ahead by 13.5, a 7.0-point swing toward Democrats from 2024.

Changes are measured from last Friday evening, October 23. Chances are the model's probabilities. A 20% chance comes true one time in five, so treat none of these numbers as a certainty.

Georgia

Georgia votes on a U.S. Senate seat, an open governorship, every statewide office, all 14 U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the General Assembly. Senator Jon Ossoff leads Representative Mike Collins by 9.1 points on average, an 11.3-point swing toward Democrats from President Trump's 2.2-point win in Georgia in 2024; the newest poll, from Echelon Insights for NetChoice, has Ossoff ahead by 15, a 17.2-point swing. In mid-October Ossoff had $15.1 million in the campaign account against $1.1 million for Collins. Counting outside and party money as well, Democrats lead about 1.5 to 1.

The governor's race remains the closest major race in the state. Of ten likely-voter polls in the average, eight have Rick Jackson ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms, by 1 to 3 points, and the two newest have Bottoms ahead: Echelon Insights for NetChoice by 1 and State Navigate by 3. The average is Jackson +1.25, a swing of about 1 point toward Democrats from 2024, while Ossoff runs about 11 points ahead of the same baseline. The model gives Bottoms 55.4%, a toss-up, because it blends the polls with a national environment that favors Democrats.

Down the ballot, the first public polls of three open offices all have the Democrat narrowly ahead: McLaurin for lieutenant governor by 2.0 on average, Reynolds for secretary of state by 2.5, and Miller for attorney general by 1.5, swings of 3.7 to 4.7 points toward Democrats. The model rates all three Lean Democratic. The other six statewide races on the table have no public poll, so each is rated a toss-up on the 2024 margin alone, a placeholder rather than a forecast. Democrats need 10 more seats to control the state House, which the model rates Lean Democratic at 79.9%, and 6 more for the state Senate, a longer shot at 27.9%. Last November, Democrats won both Public Service Commission races by about 26 points, but only about 1.56 million Georgians voted; this electorate will be far larger.

Georgia's U.S. House seats

Democrats hold 5 of Georgia's 14 U.S. House seats. Georgia did not redraw its map this cycle, so the 2024 results below are on current lines. The model's median is 6 Democratic seats (80% range 5 to 8), with a 68% chance that Democrats gain at least one seat and a 35% chance they gain two or more. All five Democratic seats are Safe, including the open 13th. No single Republican seat is favored to flip, but five of them sit between 13% and 38%, and the same national swing moves all of them together, so in most simulations at least one falls.

The best Democratic opportunities are two Lean Republican seats: the 12th, held by Rick Allen (Trump +14), at 38%, and the open 1st on the coast (Trump +16), at 37%. Next come the open 10th (Trump +21, 20%), the open 11th (Trump +23, 15%), and Rich McCormick's 7th (Trump +22, 13%). In last November's low-turnout Public Service Commission races, the Democrat carried the 1st, 10th, and 12th and came within 1.5 points in the 7th and 11th. Three Democratic candidates have released their own polls showing close races in deep-red seats: Chris Harden ahead by 2 in the open 11th, Maura Keller behind Brian Jack by 5 in the 3rd, and Kozycki ahead of McCormick by 2 in the 7th, swings of 24 to 25 points from 2024. Polls paid for by a candidate tend to run 3 to 4 points better for their sponsor, and the tracker records district polls but never enters them in the model.

The Senate

Democrats hold 47 seats and need 51 for control; a 50-50 Senate stays Republican because the vice president breaks ties. The model's median is 58 Democratic seats, with a range of 52 to 63. It rates ten Republican-held seats Lean Democratic or better, from North Carolina (99%) through Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, Nebraska, and South Carolina to Louisiana (64.5%). Idaho and Mississippi are toss-ups at 44% and 50%. Every Democratic-held seat is rated Likely or Safe.

Louisiana rests on thin evidence: its only two polls were both taken for the Davis campaign. Texas again drew the most polling. The Democrat, Talarico, leads the average by 2.8 points, a 16.5-point swing from 2024, and the race is Likely Democratic at 86%. In Nebraska, a New York Times and Siena poll had Senator Ricketts ahead of the independent, Osborn, by 5.7, a 14.8-point swing from 2024; the race stays Lean Democratic at 76% because the other seven polls are closer. Republicans lead outside and party money about 1.8 to 1, but Democratic candidates hold more cash in most of the close races, and candidates buy television at the lowest rates.

The model blends each race's polls with the national environment, which is why South Carolina and Louisiana rate Lean Democratic with Republicans ahead in the polling average by 0.8 and 2.0 points. Osborn, Bodnar, and Achilles are independents, counted with Democrats. Week: change since October 23.

The House

Democrats need 218 seats. The model's median is 257, with a range of 233 to 292, and a 98.8% chance of a majority. The projection rests on a national environment of about 12 points in Democrats' favor. That figure blends three things: the likely-voter generic ballot median (Democrats +8.0), special elections this cycle (+14), and primary turnout (+13).

This week's best district data came from four nonpartisan Times and Siena polls in Pennsylvania for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Harvie leads by 2.4 in the 1st (a 2.4-point swing from 2024), Brooks by 5.1 in the 7th (8.1 points), and Cognetti by 4.1 in the 8th (13.1 points), while Representative Perry leads by 0.4 in the 10th (4.6 points). Three of the four run behind the model, the 1st by 8.6 points, and the 8th runs 2.1 ahead. District polls are a check, never an input.

Week = change in the chance since October 23, in points. The model's wider set of competitive seats (20% to 80%) is listed with every seat drawing $1 million or more in outside money.

Governors nationwide

Thirty-six states elect governors this year. The model projects 29 Democratic governors after the election, within a range of 26 to 33, up from 24 today. It rates four Republican-held governorships Lean Democratic or better: Iowa (88%), Alaska (87%), Ohio (76%), and Nevada (68%), where the newest poll has the race even (a 3.1-point swing toward Democrats from 2024). Georgia, Vermont, Texas, and Nebraska are toss-ups, as is Democratic-held Kansas (47%), where Emerson has the Republican ahead by 5, an 11.1-point swing toward Democrats from President Trump's 16-point win.

Two races cut against their states' usual lean. Vermont's Republican governor, Phil Scott, leads by about 2 points in one of the most Democratic states in the country. And in Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro leads by about 23 points in a state President Trump carried.

Governor chances apply the tracker's Georgia governor model to every state's polling average: the polls, plus half of the national environment's lean, with wide uncertainty. The races with no tracked polling (Colorado, Hawaii, and Wyoming) use the 2024 presidential margin in place of polls. Safe races are left out of the table.

Early voting

Early-vote counts measure volume, not choice, and pace often reflects changes in voting rules or calendars. The tracker compares a state only against the same point in a comparable earlier election, after checking the rules match. Early-vote figures never move a rating or a chance.

Three states now clear that check. Georgia's early voting closed on Friday with 2,823,422 ballots, 1.13 times its full 2022 early window, after a review found no change to its early-voting rules since 2022. North Carolina, matched day for day, is at 1.34 times its 2022 pace, and Virginia at 1.15 times 2025 (a 2023 mail-ballot change rules out 2022). Texas and Pennsylvania are reporting with their checks still open; Florida and Wisconsin changed their rules after 2022, and New Hampshire is not in the data set.

Pace = 2026 ballots divided by ballots cast by the same point in the comparison year; 1.00 is the same pace. Georgia compares its whole early-voting window (18 days in 2026, through Friday, October 30; 19 in 2022). North Carolina and Texas are matched by voting day through Thursday, October 29; Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin through October 29 or 30; Florida through Thursday. Data: ElectIndex; Georgia from the Secretary of State; Virginia from VPAP (Virginia Department of Elections).

AL, NH. Most have not begun early voting or have not yet posted data; reasons are on the tracker.

Party registration as each state publishes it (ElectIndex). Registration is not a vote: registered Democrats and Republicans can cross over, and voters with no party split both ways; early voters also differ from Election Day voters. These shares describe who has voted so far, not how a state will vote. States without party registration, or whose files omit the split, are left out rather than estimated.

Georgia: who is voting early

Georgia's 18 days of early voting ended on Friday, the busiest day of the window with 307,066 ballots. Across the window, Black voters make up 32.4% of early voters on the registration file, against 29.2% at the same point in 2022, the last midterm, and white voters 52.6% against 57.4%. On Friday itself, the Black share was 33.4% against 30.0% on the matching voting day of 2022. The one Georgia poll that publishes its sample, YouGov's, assumes 29% Black on a self-identified basis, roughly a 2022- or 2024-like electorate on file terms. In 2022 the Black share fell from 29.2% of early voters to 26.2% of the final electorate once Election Day voters, who were more heavily white, were counted, so Election Day voting can narrow the gap. The rows below are conditional: what the model gives if part or all of the early difference survives to the final count.

2026: Georgia Votes, which counts early voters by the race on their registration (Georgia Votes, last updated 2026-10-31); the Georgia Secretary of State's data hub shows the same pattern. 2022: the same measure, by weekday (2022 voting opened a day earlier, on a Monday, which is included in its running share). 2024 is not used: a presidential year draws a different electorate. Who has voted is not how they voted. Extra margin is rough arithmetic holding vote choice fixed, from the approximate pattern of past Georgia exit polls. The rows do not change the published chances.

What to watch on Election Night

Polls close first in the East, and eight states with competitive House races finish most or all of their voting by 7:30 PM Eastern. Their results will be the first real test of the forecast. In Georgia, polls close at 7:00 PM, so the first Senate, governor, and House returns arrive in the same hour.

The seats below are grouped by what a Democratic win would signal. For each, the chance is this memo's model as of this edition. Early returns are often incomplete and can shift as mail and Election Day ballots are counted in different orders, so a single early lead says little; the pattern across a group says more.

Seats Democrats would expect to hold or gain in most nights where they win the House.

Republican-leaning seats, or Democratic seats on redder new lines, that Democrats win mainly in a strong year.

Seats Republicans should hold even in a very good Democratic year.

Poll closing times are Eastern. Seat list adapted from Decision Desk HQ's October 26 Election Night guide; chances and ratings are this memo's own model. A Democratic win in a seat rated toward Republicans would be a result better for Democrats than the model's typical night, and the reverse.

When the polls close

All times Eastern. Each state is listed when most of its polls close. * Part of the state, in a later time zone, closes one hour later. † Many New Hampshire polling places close one hour earlier. Source: 270toWin. Polling places can close earlier; voters in line at closing time can still vote.

What could change the picture

The headline rests on one estimate of the national environment. The scenarios below change that one assumption and hold everything else constant. Each is run through the same model.

House, Senate, and Georgia legislature cells: median Democratic seats, then the chance of Democratic control. Ossoff and Bottoms: chance of winning, with the polling margin for Bottoms.

Even in the polls-only scenario, Democrats remain favored for both chambers of Congress, though the Senate falls to under four in five and the Georgia House to a little better than even. Georgia's governor is the one major race whose favorite changes across the scenarios, from 47% to 55% for Bottoms, and the Georgia state Senate ranges from a long shot to close to even.

• The model simulates the election 20,000 times. Its inputs are 2024 presidential results in every district and state, incumbency, and an estimate of the national environment. It also allows for a wave larger than any in the historical record.
• Every rating in this memo comes from the model's chance of a Democratic win: Safe 95% or more, Likely 80% to 95%, Lean 60% to 80%, and Toss-up 40% to 60%, with the same bands on the Republican side. A seat is marked as changing party when the model rates it Lean or stronger toward the party that does not hold it.
• Polling averages use likely-voter results, including voters leaning toward a candidate, where pollsters publish them. Each pollster and sponsor counts once, at its newest poll. Polls paid for by a campaign or party enter at face value, and the text notes that such polls tend to run 3 to 4 points better for their sponsor. Polls of individual House districts are recorded but never enter the model.
• Spending is tracked from Federal Election Commission filings, but money never moves a rating.
• "Swing from 2024" compares a race's polling margin with President Trump's 2024 margin in the same place.
• This is a personal analysis for friends and family, not a forecast from any news organization, campaign, or party.